ANY DAY NOW
--:--:-- UTC
[AUG 12 2026]—Total solar eclipse — Greenland / Iceland / Spain—OBSERVED[AUG 28 2026]—Partial lunar eclipse — Americas / Europe—OBSERVED[FEB 17 2026]—Annular solar eclipse — Antarctic—OBSERVED[AUG 02 2027]—Total solar eclipse — longest of the century, Egypt / Saudi Arabia—OBSERVED[MAR 11 2011]—M9.1 Tōhoku earthquake — 15,900 dead—OBSERVED[DEC 26 2004]—M9.1 Sumatra–Andaman earthquake and tsunami—OBSERVED[FEB 06 2023]—M7.8 Kahramanmaraş earthquake sequence—OBSERVED[APR 15 2014]—First eclipse of the 2014–15 tetrad—SPECULATION[SEP 28 2015]—Fourth eclipse of the tetrad — nothing recorded—SPECULATION[OCT 21 2011]—Camping's final date — no event recorded—EXPIRED[AUG 12 2026]—Total solar eclipse — Greenland / Iceland / Spain—OBSERVED[AUG 28 2026]—Partial lunar eclipse — Americas / Europe—OBSERVED[FEB 17 2026]—Annular solar eclipse — Antarctic—OBSERVED[AUG 02 2027]—Total solar eclipse — longest of the century, Egypt / Saudi Arabia—OBSERVED[MAR 11 2011]—M9.1 Tōhoku earthquake — 15,900 dead—OBSERVED[DEC 26 2004]—M9.1 Sumatra–Andaman earthquake and tsunami—OBSERVED[FEB 06 2023]—M7.8 Kahramanmaraş earthquake sequence—OBSERVED[APR 15 2014]—First eclipse of the 2014–15 tetrad—SPECULATION[SEP 28 2015]—Fourth eclipse of the tetrad — nothing recorded—SPECULATION[OCT 21 2011]—Camping's final date — no event recorded—EXPIRED

The Claimants

Who is expected, who is feared, and everyone who has been accused of being either. Quoted texts are SCRIPTURE or TRADITION. Identifications are SPECULATION. The register is long, and its length is the finding.

0 confirmed
Instrument
The awaitedThe adversaryThe criteriaThe nomineesThe claimantsThe cipher

The claimants

11 claims, 0 confirmed

The parallel register: figures held to be the Mashiach, the Mahdi, or the returned Christ, audited against the criteria their own traditions state. Where a claim is still held by a living community, it is recorded as disputed and both positions are stated.

Three numbers, three different questions. THE FIT asks what the texts require. COVERAGE VOLUME asks how loudly it is discussed. THE CONSENSUS asks what our readers believe. They rarely agree. That disagreement is the finding.

Sort
Halftone portrait of Simon bar Kokhba
CC BY-SA 3.0

Simon bar Kokhba

SPECULATION
JUDAISM · 132–135
The claim
Led the revolt against Rome as the messianic king, striking coins for the redemption of Israel.
Endorsed by
Rabbi Akiva ben Yosef, who applied Numbers 24:17 to him and is reported as saying “this is the King Messiah”; opposed at the time by Rabbi Yohanan ben Torta.
Outcome
FALSIFIED — killed at Betar, 135. Rabbi Akiva's endorsement was subsequently treated in the tradition as the standing example of how a great sage can be wrong about this.
The fitMEETS 1 OF 7 STATED CRITERIA14%
The fit
14%
MEETS 1 OF 7 STATED CRITERIA
Coverage volume
—
No matched coverage
The consensus
—
Insufficient sample — n=0
DORMANT
Do you believe this claim?

THE CONSENSUS is not a poll of the public. It is a poll of people who voluntarily visit an apocalypse dashboard. Weight accordingly.

Jerusalem Talmud, Taanit 4:5; Dio Cassius; documentary papyri
Halftone portrait of Shabbetai Zevi
Public domain

Shabbetai Zevi

SPECULATION
JUDAISM · 1648–1676, with the movement's peak in 1665–66
The claim
Proclaimed himself Mashiach and announced the redemption for 1666 — the year itself part of the fervour, arrived at from Christian as well as Jewish apocalyptic arithmetic then in circulation.
Endorsed by
Nathan of Gaza, who proclaimed him and served as his prophet; endorsed or tolerated by communal leadership across the Ottoman empire, Italy, Poland, the Netherlands and England at the movement's height.
Outcome
FALSIFIED — converted to Islam in 1666 and died in 1676. The largest messianic movement in Jewish history since bar Kokhba collapsed within months of its own announced date.
The fitMEETS 0 OF 7 STATED CRITERIA0%
The fit
0%
MEETS 0 OF 7 STATED CRITERIA
Coverage volume
—
No matched coverage
The consensus
—
Insufficient sample — n=0
DORMANT
Do you believe this claim?

THE CONSENSUS is not a poll of the public. It is a poll of people who voluntarily visit an apocalypse dashboard. Weight accordingly.

Gershom Scholem, Sabbatai Ṣevi: The Mystical Messiah; Ottoman court records
Halftone portrait of Jacob Frank
Public domain

Jacob Frank

SPECULATION
JUDAISM · 1755–1791
The claim
Claimed to continue Shabbetai Zevi's messianic role, teaching that redemption came through transgression.
Endorsed by
The Frankist movement in Podolia and Poland, which regarded him as the successor to Shabbetai Zevi's soul; rejected and placed under ban by the rabbinic authorities of Brody and elsewhere.
Outcome
FALSIFIED — converted to Catholicism in 1759; died in 1791 with nothing effected.
The fitMEETS 0 OF 7 STATED CRITERIA0%
The fit
0%
MEETS 0 OF 7 STATED CRITERIA
Coverage volume
—
No matched coverage
The consensus
—
Insufficient sample — n=0
DORMANT
Do you believe this claim?

THE CONSENSUS is not a poll of the public. It is a poll of people who voluntarily visit an apocalypse dashboard. Weight accordingly.

Pawel Maciejko, The Mixed Multitude (2011)
Halftone portrait of Rabbi Menachem Mendel Schneerson, the Lubavitcher Rebbe
CC BY-SA 4.0

Rabbi Menachem Mendel Schneerson, the Lubavitcher Rebbe

DISPUTED
JUDAISM · Claim advanced from the early 1990s; the Rebbe died in 1994
The claim
That the Rebbe is Mashiach — held by some in the movement to be pending his revelation, and by some to be unaffected by his death.
Endorsed by
A messianist current within Chabad-Lubavitch which holds that he is the Mashiach; the position is rejected by much of Chabad's own institutional leadership and by the broad mainstream of Orthodox authorities, and the Rebbe himself discouraged the proclamation in his lifetime.
Outcome
UNRESOLVED WITHIN THE MOVEMENT, REJECTED OUTSIDE IT — the Rebbe died on 12 June 1994. Whether Maimonides' falsification clause settles the matter is exactly what the two sides disagree about.
Standing dispute

Presented as a live intra-Jewish dispute with both positions stated. The messianist position holds that the identification stands; Chabad's institutional leadership in large part, and Orthodox authorities broadly, hold that it does not and that advancing it is a departure. This surface does not adjudicate between them, and the score above is the criteria list applied mechanically, not a verdict.

The fitMEETS 1 OF 7 STATED CRITERIA14%
The fit
14%
MEETS 1 OF 7 STATED CRITERIA
Coverage volume
—
No matched coverage
The consensus
—
Insufficient sample — n=0
DORMANT
Do you believe this claim?

THE CONSENSUS is not a poll of the public. It is a poll of people who voluntarily visit an apocalypse dashboard. Weight accordingly.

Mishneh Torah, Hilchot Melachim 11:4; contemporary Chabad and Orthodox responsa
Halftone portrait of Muhammad Ahmad bin Abd Allah of Sudan
Public domain

Muhammad Ahmad bin Abd Allah of Sudan

SPECULATION
ISLAM · 1881–1885
The claim
Declared himself al-Mahdi in June 1881 and led the war that took Khartoum in 1885.
Endorsed by
His Ansar followers, who accepted his proclamation and established the Mahdist state; rejected by the Ottoman-Egyptian religious establishment and by the ulama of al-Azhar.
Outcome
FALSIFIED — died of typhus in June 1885, five months after taking Khartoum; the Mahdist state he founded was destroyed at Omdurman in 1898.
The fitMEETS 1 OF 6 STATED CRITERIA17%
The fit
17%
MEETS 1 OF 6 STATED CRITERIA
Coverage volume
—
No matched coverage
The consensus
—
Insufficient sample — n=0
DORMANT
Do you believe this claim?

THE CONSENSUS is not a poll of the public. It is a poll of people who voluntarily visit an apocalypse dashboard. Weight accordingly.

P. M. Holt, The Mahdist State in the Sudan (1970)
No free image

Mohammed Abdullah al-Qahtani

SPECULATION
ISLAM · November–December 1979
The claim
Proclaimed al-Mahdi inside the Masjid al-Haram during the seizure of 20 November 1979.
Endorsed by
Juhayman al-Otaybi, who proclaimed him during the seizure of the Grand Mosque in Makkah; the claim was condemned by the Saudi ulama, who issued the fatwa permitting force to retake the mosque.
Outcome
FALSIFIED — killed during the retaking of the mosque in December 1979. The traditions cited by the group had also stated the Mahdi would not shed blood in the sanctuary.
The fitMEETS 0 OF 6 STATED CRITERIA0%
The fit
0%
MEETS 0 OF 6 STATED CRITERIA
Coverage volume
—
No matched coverage
The consensus
—
Insufficient sample — n=0
DORMANT
Do you believe this claim?

THE CONSENSUS is not a poll of the public. It is a poll of people who voluntarily visit an apocalypse dashboard. Weight accordingly.

Yaroslav Trofimov, The Siege of Mecca (2007); Saudi state records
Halftone portrait of Mirza Ghulam Ahmad
Public domain

Mirza Ghulam Ahmad

DISPUTED
ISLAM · 1889–1908
The claim
Claimed to be both the promised Mahdi and the Messiah, holding that the awaited second advent was fulfilled in his person in a spiritual rather than bodily sense.
Endorsed by
The Ahmadiyya community, which he founded and which holds him to be the promised Mahdi and Messiah; rejected by mainstream Sunni and Shia authorities, and the basis on which several states classify Ahmadis as non-Muslim.
Outcome
DISPUTED — died in 1908. The Ahmadiyya community holds the claim; mainstream Sunni and Shia authorities reject it. The score above applies the hadith criteria list as stated and does not adjudicate the standing of the community.
Standing dispute

Ahmadis are a persecuted minority in several jurisdictions, and this entry records a doctrinal dispute over a claim, not a judgement about a community. The Ahmadiyya position reads several criteria metaphorically; mainstream authorities read them literally and reject the claim on that basis.

The fitMEETS 0 OF 6 STATED CRITERIA0%
The fit
0%
MEETS 0 OF 6 STATED CRITERIA
Coverage volume
—
No matched coverage
The consensus
—
Insufficient sample — n=0
DORMANT
Do you believe this claim?

THE CONSENSUS is not a poll of the public. It is a poll of people who voluntarily visit an apocalypse dashboard. Weight accordingly.

Ahmadiyya primary literature; rulings of mainstream Sunni and Shia authorities
Halftone portrait of Ann Lee
Public domain

Ann Lee

SPECULATION
CHRISTIANITY · 1770–1784
The claim
Held by her followers to embody the second appearing of Christ.
Endorsed by
The Shakers, who regarded her as the second appearing of Christ in female form; no wider Christian body accepted the claim.
Outcome
FALSIFIED — died in 1784. The community survived her by two centuries and has all but died out; the general resurrection did not occur.
The fitMEETS 0 OF 5 STATED CRITERIA0%
The fit
0%
MEETS 0 OF 5 STATED CRITERIA
Coverage volume
—
No matched coverage
The consensus
—
Insufficient sample — n=0
DORMANT
Do you believe this claim?

THE CONSENSUS is not a poll of the public. It is a poll of people who voluntarily visit an apocalypse dashboard. Weight accordingly.

Stephen Stein, The Shaker Experience in America (1992)
Halftone portrait of Hong Xiuquan
Public domain

Hong Xiuquan

SPECULATION
CHRISTIANITY · 1851–1864
The claim
Claimed to be the younger brother of Jesus Christ, commissioned to establish the Heavenly Kingdom on earth.
Endorsed by
The Taiping Heavenly Kingdom, which he founded and ruled; rejected by every Christian mission then operating in China.
Outcome
FALSIFIED — died in 1864 as Nanjing fell. The rebellion is among the deadliest conflicts in recorded history, with deaths estimated in the tens of millions.
The fitMEETS 0 OF 5 STATED CRITERIA0%
The fit
0%
MEETS 0 OF 5 STATED CRITERIA
Coverage volume
—
No matched coverage
The consensus
—
Insufficient sample — n=0
DORMANT
Do you believe this claim?

THE CONSENSUS is not a poll of the public. It is a poll of people who voluntarily visit an apocalypse dashboard. Weight accordingly.

Jonathan Spence, God's Chinese Son (1996)
Halftone portrait of Jim Jones
CC BY-SA 4.0

Jim Jones

SPECULATION
CHRISTIANITY · 1955–1978
The claim
Claimed at various points to be the returned Christ, and latterly rejected the Bible outright.
Endorsed by
The Peoples Temple, which he led; no Christian body accepted the claim.
Outcome
FALSIFIED — died at Jonestown, Guyana, on 18 November 1978, with more than 900 others.
The fitMEETS 0 OF 5 STATED CRITERIA0%
The fit
0%
MEETS 0 OF 5 STATED CRITERIA
Coverage volume
—
No matched coverage
The consensus
—
Insufficient sample — n=0
DORMANT
Do you believe this claim?

THE CONSENSUS is not a poll of the public. It is a poll of people who voluntarily visit an apocalypse dashboard. Weight accordingly.

US Government reports on the Jonestown deaths (1979)
Halftone portrait of David Koresh
Public domain

David Koresh

SPECULATION
CHRISTIANITY · 1988–1993
The claim
Claimed to be the final prophet and the Lamb of Revelation, alone able to open the seven seals.
Endorsed by
The Branch Davidians at Mount Carmel; rejected by the Seventh-day Adventist Church, from which the group had separated decades earlier.
Outcome
FALSIFIED — died at Mount Carmel, Waco, on 19 April 1993, with 75 others.
The fitMEETS 0 OF 5 STATED CRITERIA0%
The fit
0%
MEETS 0 OF 5 STATED CRITERIA
Coverage volume
—
No matched coverage
The consensus
—
Insufficient sample — n=0
DORMANT
Do you believe this claim?

THE CONSENSUS is not a poll of the public. It is a poll of people who voluntarily visit an apocalypse dashboard. Weight accordingly.

Report of the Department of Justice on the Waco incident (1993)
Source Primary and scholarly record, cited per card
Records 11
SPECULATIONDISPUTED