[AUG 12 2026]—Total solar eclipse — Greenland / Iceland / Spain—OBSERVED[AUG 28 2026]—Partial lunar eclipse — Americas / Europe—OBSERVED[FEB 17 2026]—Annular solar eclipse — Antarctic—OBSERVED[AUG 02 2027]—Total solar eclipse — longest of the century, Egypt / Saudi Arabia—OBSERVED[MAR 11 2011]—M9.1 Tōhoku earthquake — 15,900 dead—OBSERVED[DEC 26 2004]—M9.1 Sumatra–Andaman earthquake and tsunami—OBSERVED[FEB 06 2023]—M7.8 Kahramanmaraş earthquake sequence—OBSERVED[APR 15 2014]—First eclipse of the 2014–15 tetrad—SPECULATION[SEP 28 2015]—Fourth eclipse of the tetrad — nothing recorded—SPECULATION[OCT 21 2011]—Camping's final date — no event recorded—EXPIRED[AUG 12 2026]—Total solar eclipse — Greenland / Iceland / Spain—OBSERVED[AUG 28 2026]—Partial lunar eclipse — Americas / Europe—OBSERVED[FEB 17 2026]—Annular solar eclipse — Antarctic—OBSERVED[AUG 02 2027]—Total solar eclipse — longest of the century, Egypt / Saudi Arabia—OBSERVED[MAR 11 2011]—M9.1 Tōhoku earthquake — 15,900 dead—OBSERVED[DEC 26 2004]—M9.1 Sumatra–Andaman earthquake and tsunami—OBSERVED[FEB 06 2023]—M7.8 Kahramanmaraş earthquake sequence—OBSERVED[APR 15 2014]—First eclipse of the 2014–15 tetrad—SPECULATION[SEP 28 2015]—Fourth eclipse of the tetrad — nothing recorded—SPECULATION[OCT 21 2011]—Camping's final date — no event recorded—EXPIRED
The Velocity
Every doomsday dashboard shows this chart going up. Most of them are showing you the instruments, not the earth. We show both lines.
Two lines
Earthquake
TREND ARTIFACT
The earth is not shaking more. We are listening harder. Seismograph coverage grew from hundreds of stations to thousands; M5.0+ counts are essentially flat.
19302020
RecordedNormalized
Normalized as
Count of M5.0+ events only.
Reporting caveat
Catalogue completeness improves every decade. Any rise in the raw line is detection, not tectonics.
More floods are recorded, and more people live where floods happen. Heavy-precipitation events have increased in parts of the record; the count of disasters is not the same measurement.
19302020
RecordedNormalized
Normalized as
Adjusted for population exposure and reporting coverage.
Reporting caveat
A flood becomes a recorded disaster when it reaches people and someone writes it down. Exposure and reporting both grew steeply after 1970.
Burned area and fire-season length have both grown where the satellite record is consistent. This one holds up after normalization.
19302020
RecordedNormalized
Normalized as
Area burned per season, satellite-consistent record only.
Reporting caveat
Satellite detection began in earnest in the 1980s, so the earliest points are the weakest part of the series.
NOAA / national fire agencies (pending)SEEDED — SOURCE INTEGRATION PENDING (USGS / EM-DAT / NOAA)
Storm
MIXED
Recorded storms rise sharply with satellite coverage. Intensity metrics for the strongest systems trend upward; total counts do not tell that story on their own.
19302020
RecordedNormalized
Normalized as
Category 4–5 landfalls, satellite era only.
Reporting caveat
Before satellites, a storm that hit no shipping lane and no coastline was not a storm on anyone's ledger.